Non-Parametric Estimation of Intraday Spot Volatility: Disentangling Instantaneous Trend and Seasonality

نویسندگان

  • Thibault Vatter
  • Valérie Chavez-Demoulin
  • Bin Yu
چکیده

We provide a new framework for modeling trends and periodic patterns in high-frequency financial data. Seeking adaptivity to ever-changing market conditions, we enlarge the Fourier flexible form into a richer functional class: both our smooth trend and the seasonality are non-parametrically time-varying and evolve in real time. We provide the associated estimators and use simulations to show that they behave adequately in the presence of jumps and heteroskedastic and heavy-tailed noise. A study of exchange rate returns sampled from 2010 to 2013 suggests that failing to factor in the seasonality’s dynamic properties may lead to misestimation of the intraday spot volatility.

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تاریخ انتشار 2015